Like everyone else, I was excited about the potential of the new iPhone. But when you look into the details, the potential problems appear. Consumer acceptance of the "soft" keyboard remains to be seen. Furthermore, Apple seems dead set on ensuring that any content to be used will only come from them. They are also risking losing any enterprise market by refusing to open up network sharing (who wants to carry two phones any more?). Recently, I also had a chance to dig deep into a new 80GB video iPod. While I like a lot of what it does, and damn, it is pretty, I have become frustrated with the lack of file sharing (you can't put iTunes song on your PC without a work around) and how you can't do something as simple as delete a song from your iPod without launching the maddening and intrusive iTunes software. As a dedicated Treo owner, I am used to flexibility to pimp my PDA as I see fit.
I started experiencing a bit of Deja Vu, seeing similarities between Apple and another pioneering tech company that underestimated the sophistication of users. I sincerely hope that Apple does not let history repeat itself, but look at the market path of AOL and Apple to date:
AOL
AOL introduces a breakthrough service that makes it simple for millions of users to get online.
Apple introduces a breakthrough product and service that makes it simple for millions of users to download and listen to music.
As users become more sophisticated, they start clamoring for more content, features, and a better online experience. Local ISPs, free content, and products like Netscape and Outlook start popping up. While they make the Internet experience more complex, moderately tech savvy users realize that these new tools and services enable them to do more online than AOL allows.
As users become more sophisticated, they start clamoring for more content, applications and a better online experience. Competing MP3s and online media content, 3rd party software, and hacks start popping up. While they make media sharing more complex, moderately tech savvy users realize that they can do more with their portable device than Apple allows.
AOL ignores the growing sophistication of users, the “open” Internet landscape and the advancement of competitors, instead relying on the “simplicity” of their proprietary service and market domination to drive growth by keeping their customers “captive.”
Apple ignores the growing sophistication of users, the “open” landscape of media sharing, the demand for 3rd party applications (GPS anyone?), instead relying on the “simplicity” of their design and market dominance to drive growth by keeping their customers hostage to Apple products and services.
AOL’s customer base becomes older and younger as users realize they can do more online better, faster cheaper without AOL. The once mighty pioneer AOL becomes a bloated, rotting dotcom whale carcass.
APPLE
To be continued
Oh yeah, Steve Jobs has a secretary named Case. Steve Case has a secretary named Jobs.
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